Blog Title: Cubs f/x

It's Official - Vizcaino for Marquis and $1 mil

Jason Marquis has moved on to Colorado, and the Cubs have added another bullpen arm. From mlb.com:

The Cubs bullpen will definitely have a different look in 2009 with the addition of Vizcaino, Gregg, and possibly Rule 5 Draft pick David Patton and Jeff Stevens, acquired from the Indians in the DeRosa deal.

Hot Stove Report - Cubs Rumors (updated 1/5)

Updated 1/5/09 Happy New Year everyone. Things are in place, with Marquis for Vizcaino wrapping up and Milton Bradley en route for a physical. Here's a quick note on Milton and some analysis of Vizcaino and his troublesome splitter.

Updated 12/31 Well, Happy New Year Jim Hendry. Aaron Miles, welcome to Chicago. Mark DeRosa, welcome to Cleveland. And here's my latest cut at the 25-man roster.

Updated 12/30 Yes, it has been that slow. But, suddenly, not so slow.

First, Marquis to Colorado for Hirsh was rumored, now it's Vizcaino instead - and almost a done deal.

A couple veterans from Japan could be in camp.

And Bradley will land soon.

Updated 12/20 Another Yawn (another ht MLBTR)

Updated 12/18 Yawn (ht MLBTR) link expired

Updated 12/17 Night I have to really stretch for this update. Nothing much happened in Cub land today. Elsewhere, Furcal is going to end up in LA. There was a brief mention that the Twins still cling to some sort of Mark DeRosa deal. And Pie must really be low on the depth chart.

Updated 12/17 Morning Figuring I'll have at least one update to this today .... The Cubs are checking on Derek Lowe, according to SI. This would be a great pick-up, but, given his age and contract demands, I'm not so sure. At least, in this case, the Cubs would lose draft picks, not a boat load of players, as with Peavy. I've taken a SWAG at the 25-man. I already disagree with myself.

For those of you unfamiliar with the term, SWAG is a Scientific Wild Ass Guess. A step-up from a plain old WAG.

The whole Furcal thing is getting weird (more below). Rafael may be reneging on a "gentleman's agreement" with Atlanta. Did something similar happen with him in the Cubs three years ago? Teixeira could land soon, and Manny will probably go next. Adam Dunn is seemingly invisible.

Oh, and take the Felix Pie poll (in the right-sidebar), just got the first "Clears Waivers" vote.

Updated 12/16 So, Furcal goes to Atlanta, as widely reported at the moment. Could this mean Escobar to San Diego in a Peavy deal? We'll see. I've come around on the Joey Gathright deal (update done deal), and the Cubs may have another pitcher on the radar - Fu-Te Ni, according to Bleeding Blue and Teal (ht MLBTR). He's from Taiwan, and you can find more here - it appears the M's made him an offer already. From Lookout Landing:

Having seen him pitch, he's sort of a lefty sidearmer in the high 80s low 90s. in the majors I'm guessing he would profile as a LOOGY most of the time , though he wasn't all that effective vs lefty in Taiwan (but it was mostly singles. the underlying preriphals were very good,)

1. Cubs find new home for Marquis, taking on part of the salary - but don't execute the deal


2. The Cubs sign or acquire a left-handed hitting right-fielder, and then the big one.....


3. My guess: A three-team trade, with Pie, Cedeno, Player X, Player Y and Vitters taking a hike. Cubs end up wth Jake Peavy, Orioles get Pie and Player X, Friars get Vitters, Garret Olson, Player Y, Cedeno and Adam Scott.


4. Marquis goes

Ron Washington on Milton Bradley

I have a philosophy about team building at work. I'd rather reign people in than bump them up. It's a matter of style, preference and comfort - it isn't for everyone. Milton Bradley may be my kind of guy. But is he a fit for the Cubs?

From cubs.com:

"Milton wants to win as much as any player I've ever been around," Rangers manager Ron Washington told the Sporting News. "Sometimes, that's misunderstood, and that's unfortunate. Milton gets a bad rap, and it's not because he doesn't care. It's because he cares too much."

Olney's Mistakes on the Cubs Mistakes

Go read it.

one of those evaluators made the argument that DeRosa may have been the Cubs' best player last season

the same evaluators say none of the pitchers is a Grade A prospect.

The Cubs could've kept DeRosa and re-signed Jim Edmonds

could've re-signed Edmonds and used the extra money to finish the proposed deal with the Padres for Jake Peavy

Bradley is a fine hitter who is coming off an excellent offensive season

Luis Vizcaino - Trade Bait, Set-up Guy, or ROOGY?

While Colorado and the Cubs wait for Luis Vizcaino and Jason Marquis to pass their physicals, I'm going to look more at Vizcaino and, in particular, his struggles in 2008.

The issue in 2008 seemed to be the lefty/righty splits. Since the small samples for a relief pitcher get tiny when doing splits, it is important to consider his recent, and career, performance alongside.

avg/obp/slg (PA)

Career
RHH 238/314/404 (1313)
LHH 249/330/439 (965)

2007
RHH 213/314/354 (195)
LHH 265/362/427 (139)

2008
RHH 170/252/277 (107)
LHH 372/432/744 (96)

Well, that was an ugly season indeed. 2007 was good, in line with career stats, but, in 2008, everything was whacked. I would expect both splits to regress towards the career line in 2009.

Still, the performance was poor. Whether or not is was predictive or meaningful, what can we uncover about it?

Starting with his stuff, Vizcaino throws a fastball/slider combo to righties, and adds a splitter against lefties. He may throw another change-up type as well, but I haven't been able to isolate it reliably. So, the splitter is our first candidate for exploration. Only thrown to lefties, it could help explain the unusual splits - or at least one side of them.

Starting with spin movement and flight paths, Luis' fastball averages 92.7 mph at release, the splitter runs in the high 80s (87.9mph) and then the slider (84.1).





Here are some metrics (a few new ones) on how this stuff works out (definitions below):

Bako Signing Close, Other Notes From the Trib

Fresh news to end the year:

Bradley's signing may wait until just before the Cubs Convention.

the Cubs have more depth in the system to make a move for Peavy

Paul Bako, another left-handed hitter, is expected to sign a one-year deal for around $500,000.

Asked if Hendry’s dealings meant talks with the Cubs regarding Peavy might reopen, Padres GM Kevin Towers responded with a one-word email: "Doubtful."

Revising the Cubs 25 - plus WAR

A few weeks ago I took a SWAG at the opening day roster. Well, things have changed (and some haven't). Time for an update. And Projections and WAR.

There are some gaps, and I think Jake Peavy could be en route .... we'll see.

But, for now, let's throw in Milton Bradley, a generic back-up catcher Paul Bako and roll. 14 batters, 12 pitchers. Aaron Miles is pitcher #13. Yes, that's 26 men, but I'm balancing the playing time in the projections.

C  Geovany Soto
1B Derrek Lee
2B Mike Fontenot
SS Ryan Theriot
3B Aramis Ramirez
LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Reed Johnson
CF Kosuke Fukudome
RF Milton Bradley
OF Joey Gathright
C  Paul Bako
IF Ronny Cedeno
UT Aaron Miles
PH Micah Hoffpauir

SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Rich Harden
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Ted Lilly
SP Sean Marshall
RP Carlos Marmol
RP Kevin Gregg
RP Neal Cotts
RP Chad Gaudin
RP Luis Vizcaino
RP Michael Wuertz
RP Angel Guzman

DeRosa to Cleveland for Prospects

Bruce Levine via Maddog at ACB

[UPDATE @ 12:16 p.m.] According to Levine, Derosa has just been dealt to Cleveland for pitchers Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, & John Gaub.

Aaron Miles - The Latest Cardinal to Move to Wrigley

The Cubs got Aaron Miles on a two-year contract, according to Cubs.com. He's a utility man - and has even pitched. Oh, I am so PITCHf/xing this infielder.

Gameday thinks he's chucking a knuckle-ball - I applaud the realtime effort, but, Mr. Miles himself says it's something else.

I was just throwing the old sinkerball

Luis Vizcaino for Jason Marquis - Almost Official

Not yet official, but widely reported. Jason Marquis and a million bucks to Colorado for Luis Vizcaino.

The Cubs get a disgruntled reliever, the Rockies a back of the rotation veteran.

Vizcaino hasn't stuck around anywhere lately - this will be 6 teams in 6 seasons, and #7 for his career - assuming the Cubs don't flip him (I read somewhere that Bruce Levine said so somewhere etc. etc.)

1999 Oakland
2000 Oakland
2001 Oakland
2002 Milwaukee
2003 Milwaukee
2004 Milwaukee
2005 White Sox
2006 Arizona
2007 Yankees
2008 Colorado
2009 Cubs

Rumor Mill f/x - Jason Hirsh?

I don't know too much on this one, but Neil at CCO reports on the Jason Marquis situation:

According to a report on Friday from the Rocky Mountain News, the Cubs are still shopping Jason Marquis and the Rockies could be a fit. XM Radio reported the rumor on Saturday and stated Jason Hirsh and another player might be involved.

Marmol Blows a Save and Other Saturday Night Notes

Over at Fangraphs, Marc Hulet has a nice write-up on three Cubs prospects - and recent additions to the 40-man roster (Marcos Mateo, Mitch Atkins and Justin Berg). Of the three, Mateo sounds like the best, to me.

In the 2nd game of Licey's post-season, Carlos Marmol blew a two-run lead in the 9th inning. Marmol struck out one batter, but gave up three singles and hit two men. The first single was an infield hit, and the other two were to centerfield (one on the ground). The final out was a 1-6-3 put-out, which was probably a deflection off one of Marmol's ears. Pegging two guys isn't a good thing, but, otherwise, it doesn't sound too bad. Not like he gave up a couple homers or something.

Scout.com has a piece on Rule 5 Draft-and-Trade acquisition David Patton (sub. req.).

Patton combines his breaking ball with a fastball, consistently 91 to 94 mph with good movement at times, Wilken said. His third pitch is a changeup.

Sully: Cubs Looking Abroad for Veteran Relief Help

Paul Sullivan has a report on the Cubs looking at two Japanese relievers:

The pitcher they're most interested in is Ken Kadokura, a 35-year-old right-hander, and they also had a tryout for 34-year-old left-hander Shigeki Noguchi. The Yomiuri Giants released both veterans after the 2008 season.

Sammy Waits by the Phone

This AP piece on ESPN.com makes Sammy sound a little caddy:

"I still don't have an offer and I shouldn't be looking for offers out there," said Sosa, the National League MVP in 1998 and the only hitter to surpass 60 or more homers in a season on three occasions. "Any team who wants to sign me should have the initiative and make an offer."

Fluff

Cubs.com has lacked anything of interest in days. So, what do we get for Xmas? A lump of coal in the form of a "Q&A" about the holiday with Kevin Gregg. Nothing about baseball at all. What's next, a feature on puppies? The baby animals at the zoo? Did you know that Kevin Gregg is a new member of the Cubs who is looking to stake out turf in the bullpen? Wonder how he feels about leaving Florida? Too bad, read about his tree farm instead.

Trying to glean something, I'm stuck on this.

MLB.com: Do you get first dibs on the best tree?

Gregg: We have to tie off our tree and say, "Hands off."

If Teixeira to New York is True ....

... and SI and ESPN both are reporting it (see all the goods at MLBTR), Mark Teixeira is a Yankee. This means the other dominoes can start to fall now.

Milton Bradley should become of even more interest to the Nationals now, the Rays may step harder since the Yankees just got better, as the Cubs may finally be able to getting a clearer sense of the competition for the switch-hitter.

Marmol in the Dominican - Strong Second Outing

I don't think it is any cause for celebration, but this does make it four straight strike outs for Carlos Marmol. It was a non-save situation, btw.

Azucareros Top 9th

* Pitcher Change: Carlos Marmol replaces Victor Marte.
* Offensive Substitution: Pinch hitter Ramon Nivar replaces Michel Abreu.
* Ramon Nivar called out on strikes.
* Napoleon Calzado strikes out swinging.
* Andy Marte strikes out swinging.

Daniel Cabrera f/x

Just in time for his signing with Washington, Daniel Cabrera is the subject of my first contribution to Beyond the Box Score. I'll be posting a few times a week, over there. No real change in this blog, except maybe some less of the "what does that have to do with the Cubs?" stuff.

Almost Live Wrigley Rink Cam

Not quite live, 15 minutes delayed. Wrigley, once home to the Bears, will be home for the Hawks on January 1.

Ronny Cedeno Recovers from Flu

Ronny's back in the Aragua line-up (along with the red-hot Sam Fuld) after missing two games with the flu. Cedeno returned Wednesday and went 3 for 4. One of those hits was a home run with Fuld on base.

You should expect to see a fair amount of Ronny Cedeno in the Caribbean World Series and the World Baseball Classic.

Marmol Gets Going in Winter Ball

Carlos Marmol pitched an inning for Licey on Tuesday. Here is his Winter ball page at MLB.com.

Oneli Perez is the primary closer for los Tigres. In Marmol's outing, Carlos pitched the 7th and Perez the 8th. We'll see if Carlos can move past him.

Since it's the middle of December, I'll give you Marmol's play-by-play log to fill space, I mean, provide valuable information.

# Victor Diaz grounds out, shortstop Anderson Hernandez to first baseman D'Angelo Jimenez.
# Hector Luna walks.
# Luis Polonia flies out to center fielder Yordany Ramirez.
# Alexis Gomez called out on strikes.

Baseball Projection.com Goes Live

Chone Smith has taken his projection system and webified the outputs. For free. Baseball Projection.com just went live and is still a work in progress. Way to go, Chone.

Former Astro and Cub Reliever Dave Smith Passed Away

Dave Smith, the Astros' closer in the 80s, died today of a heart attack, according to MLB.com. Smith was 53 and in San Diego at the time of his death.

Smith saved at least 23 games for six straight seasons, snapping the run during the first of two seasons as a Cub. He saved 17 for Chicago in 1991, and retired after just 11 appearances in 1992. The only pitcher with more saves as an Astro is Billy Wagner.

According to The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, Smith threw a fastball, sinker, curveball and a forkball.

update Here's a story from the AP that tells you more about Dave Smith from his friends/teammates/surfers.

Ryne Sandberg to Manage AA in 2009

Cubs Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg has been promoted from Low-A Peoria to AA Tennessee. He'll manage the Smokies in AA ball:

"For me, it's an excellent opportunity advancing up the ladder with what I'm doing now in baseball," Sandberg says. "I appreciate the opportunity the Cubs have given me these past two years, and I am looking forward to the challenges in taking this next step and being successful in Tennessee."

Felix Pie is Really Not a Cub For Much Longer

In an updated piece on the Joey Gathright deal, MLB.com provides this little nugget:

Cubs general manager Jim Hendry...looked at players like Gathright during the Rule 5 Draft last week.